By C. F. Larry Heimann
Advanced and dicy technologies--technologies resembling new medicinal drugs for the therapy of AIDS that promise nice advantages to our society yet hold major risks--pose many difficulties for political leaders and the coverage makers liable for overseeing them. Public firms corresponding to the nutrition and Drug management are advised by way of political superiors to not inhibit very important technological advances and will also be charged with selling such improvement yet should also ensure that no significant injuries happen less than their watch. Given the big expenses linked to catastrophic injuries, most people and elected officers usually call for trustworthy or failure-free administration of those applied sciences and feature little tolerance for the mistake. examine during this region has result in a schism among those that argue that it really is attainable to have trustworthy administration recommendations and correctly deal with complicated applied sciences and others who contend that such keep an eye on is tough at top. during this publication C. F. Larry Heimann advances a big option to this challenge by means of constructing a basic idea of organizational reliability and organisation determination making. The publication seems to be at either exterior and inner impacts on reliability in employer choice making. It then exams theoretical propositions built in a comparative case research of 2 corporations concerned with the dealing with of dicy applied sciences: NASA and the manned house flight software and the FDA's dealing with of pharmaceuticals--particularly new AIDS cures. Drawing on strategies from engineering, organizational concept, political technological know-how, and choice idea, this publication should be of curiosity to these drawn to technological know-how and know-how coverage, bureaucratic administration and reform, in addition to these attracted to overall healthiness and area coverage. C. F. Larry Heimann is Assistant Professor of Political technological know-how, Michigan kingdom collage.
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Additional info for Acceptable Risks: Politics, Policy, and Risky Technologies
If there is uncertainty over the state of the technology and this uncertainty affects an agency's allocation decision and its overall likelihood of failing, does it make sense for the agency to revise its beliefs about the state of the technology as new information becomes available? Those who do research in Bayesian decision analysis would argue that it is rational for an agency to update its assessments in light of new information. In a Bayesian schema, the decision maker begins by choosing some probability distribution to model an uncertain outcome; in this case, it is the probability of experiencing a certain form of failure.
This difference in visibility should have driven NASA to allocate more of its effort and resources toward preventing the more visible type I error. NASA in the Apollo Era Eisenhower would not support a major space initiative throughout his term. At the end of his term, even NASA administrator Keith Glennan, appointed because he shared Eisenhower's general perspective on space policy, felt that the White House had not given NASA the support it deserved. 8 Democratic candidate John F. Kennedy used the administration's inaction against his 7.
Developing such a model is the focus of the next section of this chapter. I Modeling Agency Incentives We begin the discussion of an agency's political incentives by developing a basic formal model of the situation. Using a formal model offers two advantages in this case. First, it allows us to incorporate probability into our discussion in a direct and natural manner. This is important since an agency's decisions are dependent on the probability of each type of failure. Another advantage to formal models is that they require explication of assumptions and add clarity to our discussion.