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Additional resources for Alternative Futures and Their Implications for Army Modernization
We saw relatively little need for Objective Force organizations in this future. A small number of Army XXI heavy forces are retained as a hedge against the possibility of a war with a regional power—a remote event in this future. The active force is some 30 percent smaller than today’s Army. Most of the modernization effort has been devoted to the creation of several Interim divisions. 32 Modernization Implications Major Competitor Overall impact on Army Mod Plan = Major (increase) Objective Interim Force Force Army XXI SOF WMD TMD Defense AVN Deep Strike CSS C4ISR Insights: • • • • • • Reappearance of major opponent Active Army is 10% larger than today Major increases in attack aviation, deep strike, and C4ISR Objective Force–type medium units stressed over Interim organizations TMD/WMD require increase compared to today’s plans Army XXI–type units used in areas conducive toprepositioning R ARROYO CENTER Major Competitor is a threatening future.
In this future the Army would have to be prepared for deployments to confront hostile actions by two different coalitions that are opposed to the United States. Operations in many parts of the world would be the norm in this future. Due to the need for rapid-deployment capability and the requirement to combat capable units of the opposing coalitions, we envisioned a significant increase in Objective Force units. There would also be a need to make major increases in TMD, aviation (lift and attack), deep strike, and C4ISR capabilities.
Long-term Army modernization strategy should accommodate the possibility of various futures in the next 20–30 years. Systems and platforms that have applicability in many different plausible futures may represent the wisest investment strategy. 48 Conclusions continued • C4ISR enhancements, medium forces, SOF, and a mix of aviation capabilities appear to be sound long-term investments. • Heavy force modernization (Army XXI upgrades) seems inappropriate for several of the possible futures. • Need to systematically revisit the signposts and indicators that define the various futures.