By Danielsson, Saltoglu
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Additional resources for Anatomy Of A Market Crash - A Market Microstructure Analysis Of The Turkish Overnight Liquidity Crisis
By far the largest estimates are obtained by using Feige's method based upon the transactions ratio. Using a bench-mark of 1939 (also used by Feige) Porter and Bayer estimate that by 1981 the black economy, expressed as a percentage of recorded GNP, was nearly as high as 60 per cent! 4 billion. Porter and Bayer reca1culated these estimates assuming that the black economy was 5 per cent of GNP in 1964. This removes the possible embarrass- Monetary Statistics and the Black Economy 37 me nt of a negative black economy, but produces an estimate for the USA's black economy in 1981 of nearly $2000 billion or 68 per cent of GNPl These figures look ridiculously large.
Some of the excess may be due to the fact that, with inflation, large bills are employed more often in ordinary transactions, but this usage is probably minimal (Ross, 1978, p. 93). Similar kinds of calculation have been undertaken by Freud for the UK. His calculations show that: between 1972 and 1978 the aggregate value of HO and f20 notes in circulation grew by 470 per cent, while the growth in the aggregate value of all British notes rose by only 110 per cent. Inflation and increased consumer spending account for only a small proportion of the increase, for over the same six years, consumer expenditure at current prices rose by only 140 per cent (Freud, 1979, p.
G. no data on the MI measure of the money supply ex ist before 1963 and there were breaks in both the MI and fM3 series in 1967, 1972 and 1975. In view of these difficulties it would be wrong to read too precise a significance into O'Higgins's findings. 4 per cent of GDP). The precise result here depends upon whether the income velocity of circulation is calculated by the ratio of GMDP GDP 1 or M* . Matthews (1982) uses an adaptation of the Tanzi method to derive estimates for the UK's black economy in 1979.