By Doyle 'Texas Dolly' Brunson, Chip Reese, Joey Hawthorne
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Extra info for Doyle Brunson's Super System: A Course in Power Poker, 3rd Edition
You'll have additional compensations for playing the aggressive way I recommend. You'll be able to break a lot of players because you're in there gambling all the time ... and, because of that, you'll get a lot of your real good hands paid off. Tight players don't get their real good hands paid off because they make a move so rarely that their hands are an "open book" whenever they do. And they almost never change gears (start playing loose). But you'll be out there betting, betting, betting all the time.
He has a chance to make a bigger Straight and he also has a Flush draw. He has 14 wins 3 Fives, 4 Tens and 7 Clubs (other than the Five and Ten of Clubs). With two cards to come, there's a 53% chance that he'll catch one of those 14 cards. That makes him a 53 to 47 (or a 6%) favorite. There's also a case in Hold 'em where you could be in a lot worse shape than that after you flop the nuts. This interesting situation could occur as follows: You flopped the nuts ... but so did your opponent. More than that ...
If he had something, he would've bet. Of course, I might have to make a further adjustment. If he checked (on the Flop) and then called me ... I'd give him credit for something. If there's no Straight or Flush draw out there ... he's probably got a small piece of the Board. ) If he checks again on Fourth and calls me again ... then I'd know I'm going to have to show him a hand on the end unless I thought he was drawing and missed his hand. Only then would I think I had a chance to steal it on the end.