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Additional info for From Capital Surges to Drought: Seeking Stability from Emerging Economies (Studies in Development Economics and Policy)
Reducing procyclicality and the short-termism of flows A major challenge is to create countervailing forces in both source and recipient countries that will dampen the natural tendency of financial markets for procyclicality and short-termism, a tendency that has been accentuated by the changes outlined above. In this section we shall focus on issues relating to procyclicality in source countries. There are two complementary means of creating countervailing forces: action taken by the financial industry itself; and measures taken by public authorities, especially regulatory ones.
But all things considered, intermediate regimes offer a sound alternative to costly volatility. The review in Chapter 13 of the Argentinean, Chilean and Mexican experiences shows that a policy that is suitable for one macroeconomic environment may not be so for another. In this sense, a crucial point to bear in mind when adopting a policy is how costly it would be to switch to an alternative one. Credible pegged systems can be useful when a crisis with hyperinflation has bottomed out and there is a plentiful supply of external funding.
During normal times the unbundling of risk, and the increased liquidity offered by derivatives, is positive. However derivatives – even if used by foreign and domestic companies to hedge their investment – can put downward pressure on emerging-market currencies, and can even precipitate or seriously deepen a devaluation, as investors rush to hedge their currency exposure in anticipation of a possible currency crisis or to meet collateral requirements once the currency and asset prices fall. We have already discussed the use of foreign exchange forwards and swaps (for example by foreign direct investors), and their possible negative impact on capital flows and/or the exchange rate in the lead-up to a crisis.