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Extra resources for Improve Your Betting: Selected Systems and Strategies
In my view, Polytrack is close enough to turf that there is hardly any difference - if they dyed it green, most punters would be far less anti-AW than they are at present! Just like turf, Polytrack promotes a moderate pace, a bunched finish and luck in running. It isn't as good a surface for punters as the old tracks were, and speed figures don't work 45 SMARTERSIG on it in my experience. There are some draw biases still at sprint trips, but they are fairly obvious and the market takes them into account.
You also need to check all your bets. I’ve had errors made by all the firms. Generally, by using the wrong mark-up or sometimes just a simple calculation error. To their credit when this is pointed out it is corrected without demure. The final thing about spread betting is no one will appreciate it. You can’t go to the pub and say “I sold Southwell distances at 9 and they made up 35 SMARTERSIG to 3” whereas you can say “I had a 10/1 winner at Ludlow today” and they’ll understand what’s going on.
The model originally described by Maher has since formed the basis for similar models developed by a number of authors, most notably Dixon and Coles (1997), which indeed was one of the first published works that attempted to use the derived model for predictive purposes with applications to football betting. Indeed, Dixon and Coles argued that with an appropriate strategy for choosing bets, it is possible to identify matches where the bookmakers offered odds were in the bettor’s favour! Further developments of Maher’s and Dixon and Coles’ models have since been published in the academic research literature, and indeed it is in this area that my own as yet unpublished PhD research is currently focused!