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Additional info for Sure-Fire Forex Trading
They are both 4-hour charts. Sure-Fire Forex Trading 49 Sure-Fire Forex Trading © The rules for the EMA bands are that when both of the shorter 89’s cross above both 144’s then the trend is up. The trend remains up even if both 89’s move into the 144’s. It only changes to down if both 89’s cross below the 144’s at some stage. The first chart of the AUD/USD has been in an uptrend for just over 40 days using the two sets of EMA bands. The next chart of the USD/JPY has been in a downtrend for over 40 days and remains in a downtrend even though 89’s have moved into the area of the 144’s towards the right hand side of the chart.
This is the law of independent trial. The next time you have a beer with your buddy ask him what he thinks the odds are of tails coming up if you just tossed a coin in the air 10 time and every time it came down heads? The point of this exercise is to make you think about probability. If you throw the coin in the air often enough it would eventually even out to 50/50. But if that where your trading account, would you still have enough money left in the account to see you through the bad runs? Bad runs can and will happen to you at some stage and there is no way of knowing when.
As I will only be using Bar charts and Candlestick charts in my analysis, I will introduce and explain these first. The Bar Chart Bars Bullish Bar Bearish Bar A bar represents one period of time. It is a means of measuring the duration of buying or selling within the market. The time intervals may be 5 minutes, 10 minutes, 30 minutes, 1 hour, 2 hours, 4 hours, 1 day, 1week, even one minute if desired. You can use any time period you want. Sure-Fire Forex Trading 34 Sure-Fire Forex Trading © BAR CHART Sure-Fire Forex Trading 35 Sure-Fire Forex Trading © Candlesticks Chart Bullish Candle Bearish Candle The same thing applies to a candlestick chart as a bar chart.